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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.