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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest shock.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still