🔗 Share this article

It simply cannot continue. It makes no rational sense that it persists. Yet, persist it does.

A Record-Chasing Triumph Against the Odds

The Claret and Blue army arrived at the weekend's top-flight clash at Chelsea aiming for a historic record of 11 consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in 1897 and 1914. For much of the match, achieving it seemed highly unlikely, as Chelsea dominated proceedings, took the lead, and might have added several more. But, Chelsea have shown vulnerability when ahead, especially at home, while Villa now possess a remarkable knack of snatching away victories from losing positions.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball cannoning in off his leg and the post after his first effort was saved by the goalkeeper. Subsequently, he secured the winner with a deft header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. Watkins might believe a bit of luck was due, and there's no question the equalizing goal involved a large slice of luck. Currently, though, Lady Luck seems to be favoring Villa.

The Statistics Behind an Unlikely Run

The last nine of these eleven straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have kept a shutout in only one of those games. Their expected goals (xG) have been better in only six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This formula should not, yet pundits have been saying that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The key question is whether their results will eventually align with their displays or if their performances can rise to match the points haul.

This should not be possible, but everyone has been stating that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Defining Characteristic: Resilience

Coming from behind is not just a trait of the current campaign. Over the past three seasons, no team has won more points when trailing than Villa's fifty-four; Eighteen of those have been secured this season, 50% more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have scored nine goals. Two key observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

• Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted self-belief that means no game ever feels insurmountable. This is, in part, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they believe they can do it once more.
• Secondly, Emery has proven exceptionally adept at changing games through his substitutions.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1 to 1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple change. Ollie Watkins replaced Malen, who had struggled with few chances. Suddenly, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's runs in behind created issues. Amadou Onana and Sancho also entered, strengthening the midfield and adding the width they had lacked earlier.

The Blues registered ten attempts to Villa's none before the substitutions; following them, Villa created 11 chances to Chelsea's 4. By the final whistle, Villa were in control and could easily have won by a greater margin. Once again, opposing manager Maresca struggled to respond as the game turned against him; the impression remains that he is more proficient at devising a game plan with preparation time than making adjustments on the fly.

Moment of Magic

Villa have cultivated a happy habit of individuals producing pieces of sensational quality to alter games. Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his favored foot and whipping a finish home has become a recurring leitmotif. It was Malen who changed the game after coming on at Leeds. The striker changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of defenders like Ezri Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were key. Right now, it's not always the entire team playing flawlessly, but enough players within it stepping up to secure the victories.

The Road Ahead

Can they keep going? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season nears its midway point, they have to be considered as part of the championship conversation, certainly more so than club world champions Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. Tuesday's away game at Arsenal will be a significant examination of that claim. Villa beat Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.

Arsenal have assembled their own run of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being entirely convincing. The upcoming clash will be a test for both sides – and if Villa win a 12th game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to deny their championship pedigree.