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Only two days before the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond the winner citywide, and block by block. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a well-known figure recently for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

It was necessary because they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous initially: Mamdani led the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots that came in after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which election day turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added half a million votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously backed the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it so afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I think there was significant tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. So there was a little resistance. But no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that each urban center in America could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.