🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.